As the third successive year of la Niña settles into its stride, the New Pause has lengthened by another month (and very nearly by two months). There has been no trend in the UAH global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies since September 2014: 8 years 5 months and counting.
As always, the New Pause is not a prediction: it is a measurement. It represents the farthest back one can go using the world’s most reliable global mean temperature dataset without finding a warming trend.
The sheer frequency and length of these Pauses provide a graphic demonstration, readily understandable to all, that It’s Not Worse Than We Thought – that global warming is slow, small, harmless and, on the evidence to date at any rate, strongly net-beneficial.
Again as always, here is the full UAH monthly-anomalies dataset since it began in December 1978. The uptrend remains steady at 0.134 K decade–1.
The gentle warming of recent decades, during which nearly all of our influence on global temperature has arisen, is a very long way below what was originally predicted – and still is predicted.
In IPCC (1990), on the business-as-usual Scenario A emissions scenario that is far closer to outturn than B, C or D, predicted warming to 2100 was 0.3 [0.2, 0.5] K decade–1, implying 3 [2, 5] K ECS, just as IPCC (2021) predicts. Yet in the 33 years since 1990 the real-world warming rate has been only 0.137 K decade–1, showing practically no acceleration compared with the 0.134 K decade–1 over the whole 44-year period since 1978.
IPCC’s midrange decadal-warming prediction was thus excessive by 0.16 [0.06, 0.36] K decade–1, or 120% [50%, 260%].
Why, then, the mounting hysteria – in Western nations only – about the imagined and (so far, at any rate) imaginary threat of global warming rapid enough to be catastrophic?
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
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